|
| |
Ludington Deer Population Estimates Based on The
Ludington High School 2018/2019 “A. P. Environmental Science Deer Camera
Study in Ludington, MI.”
This analysis to be presented to the Ludington City Council on February 12th
2024. The presentation will be made as follows because of time limitation on
public comments imposed by the council. These are three minutes at the start of
the session and two minutes at the end. Restriction obviously imposed to limit
meaningful comments to be presented. These restricts necessitate the analysis to
be presented in three parts.
-
First the introduction to the analysis, presented verbally in the
first period for public comment. [three minutes]
-
Second the criteria for the analysis will only be in written form in
copies of the study analysis made available to the council.
-
Third, the conclusions from the analysis will be presented verbally
at the second period for public comment. [two minutes]
Introduction
During at least two council meetings Mayor
Barnett cited a Ludington high school science project labeled “A. P.
Environmental Science Deer Camera Study in Ludington, MI.”
The study was completed under the
auspices of Mark Willis. After speaking with superintendent Kyle Corlett and
Mark Willis about the report I made a FOIA request for a copy of the report
which is now in my possession.
My original intent was to send it to a
professional wildlife population expert for evaluation but after reading the
report determined that was not necessary because this study does not calculate
or in any other way designate how many deer are residing inside the Ludington city
limits because it is raw data that needs to be subjected to analysis to
determine what it means. Unfortunately, Mayor Barnett mistakenly believed the
raw data represented the number of deer in the city and it does not.
The study report is a little short on
details, which I have requested from Mr. Willis but relatively safe assumptions
can be made that should not impact the conclusions drawn from the study
significantly.
The students placed ten cameras in wooded
areas throughout the city baited each with corn and collected photographs for
about 200 days (From the start of the school year to late winter). During that
time the cameras captured 375 photographs of deer. Given the length of time the
cameras were in place and the number of cameras that equates to one deer
photograph every five to six days or thirty-seven or thirty-eight photos for each camera over
the entire study period.
So how many deer are residing in Ludington
based on the results of this test? That is a very interesting question, but not
an easy one to answer. There are many factors that can affect how many deer you
will photograph, such as the deer population, the deer activity, the corn
availability, the camera placement, and the weather. However, I can try to give
you a rough estimate based on some assumptions and information from the web.
Test Analysis Criteria Assumptions for Deer Trail
Cameras
First, let’s assume that the deer
population in the Ludington Michigan area is like the average deer density in
the Northern Lower Peninsula, which is about 15 deer per square mile “1”. Let’s
also assume that each trail camera covers a circular area of 0.1 square mile,
which is equivalent to a radius of about 0.18 mile or 950 feet. This means that
each camera has a potential of capturing 1.5 deer per day if all deer in the
area visit the camera.
Second, let’s assume that the deer
activity and the corn bait are correlated. According to some sources “2-3”, corn
is a highly attractive bait for deer, especially in the late season when natural
food sources are scarce. However, corn can also be harmful to deer if they
consume too much of it after eating mostly woody roughage “2”. Therefore, we
need to balance the amount of corn we use to bait the deer and consider the
availability of other food sources in the area. For this estimate, let’s assume
that we use 50 pounds of corn per camera per week, which is about 7 pounds per
day. This should be enough to lure the deer, but not enough to cause digestive
problems.
Third, let’s assume that the camera
placement and the weather are optimal. We want to place the cameras in areas
that have high deer traffic, such as trails, edges, funnels, or bedding areas
“4”. We also want to avoid placing the cameras in direct sunlight, or facing the
wind, as this can affect the quality of the photos or the detection of the
motion sensors “4”. Additionally, we want to have favorable weather conditions,
such as moderate temperatures, low wind, and no precipitation, as these can
influence the deer movement and behavior ‘4”. For this estimate, let’s assume
that we have ideal camera placement and weather for 80% of the 200 days, which
is 160 days.
Based on these assumptions, we can
calculate the expected number of deer photos per camera per day as follows:
On ideal days (80% of the time), we expect 1.5 deer per camera per day,
multiplied by a 90% chance of the deer being attracted by the corn, and a 95%
chance of the camera capturing a clear photo. This gives us 1.5 x 0.9 x 0.95 =
1.28 deer photos per camera per day.
On non-ideal days (20% of the time), we expect 1.5 deer per camera per day,
multiplied by a 50% chance of the deer being attracted by the corn, and a 80%
chance of the camera capturing a clear photo. This gives us 1.5 x 0.5 x 0.8 =
0.6 deer photos per camera per day.
Therefore, the average number of deer photos per camera per day is 1.28 x 0.8 +
0.6 x 0.2 = 1.08.
Conclusions drawn from the analysis
To get the total number of deer photos for 15 deer from 10 cameras in 200 days, we simply
multiply the average number of deer photos per camera per day by 10 and by 200.
This gives us 1.08 x 10 x 200 = 2160 deer photos.
So, if there were about 50 deer in
Ludington (15 deer per sq. mile x 3.4 Sq. miles) one would expect 2160
photographs and the actual count was 375. That is about 17% so there are about
eight deer in the city at any given time.
Of course, this is just an estimate, and
the actual number of deer photos may vary depending on the actual conditions and
variables. Also, keep in mind that some deer photos may be duplicates of the
same deer, or may include other animals besides deer. Therefore, the number of
deer photos does not necessarily reflect the number of individual deer in the
area.
In short, the only thing this study proves
is that there are fewer than the area average of fifteen deer per square mile in
the city, which is exactly what one would expect. And far less than the over 300
claimed by Mayor Barnette.
Reference Sources
1: Deer Management Unit Info - State of
Michigan 2: The Deer Baiting Guide: All About Baiting Whitetails – Hunt Stand 3:
How to Use Corn As Bait For Hunting Deer – Precision Outdoors 4: How to Hunt Big
Bucks Over Bait | Outdoor Life
| |
|
